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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding superior leadership or merely the greatest surprise.

However the current field is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent also-rans ascending in unison. Under an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote ought to shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the level of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a normal season, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has engineered a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field stuff, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an early strong start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has fallen away since that hot streak, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still