Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Decline Thirty-Seven Percent During President Sheinbaum, As per Government Figures

The typical number of everyday killings per month in the country has dropped by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new administrative figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have advised that homicide figures may not signal enhanced countrywide safety.

Significant Reduction in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 murders a day in the month of November compared with roughly 87 when the President assumed the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was provided by the director of the country’s federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in homicides that have been recorded during these past months is extremely significant,” Sheinbaum remarked, explaining that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the last decade.

Recent Background and Government Plan

Intense organized crime internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate soar in recent years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a homicide rate more than 4x higher than the United States. From that point, killings have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has linked her national security approach for an ostensibly more pronounced reduction in homicides this year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President declared: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the strategy, and we have detailed monitoring locality by locality in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy involve:

  • Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
  • Advancing information gathering and investigation capabilities.
  • Enhanced collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts cautioned that relying on homicide data to paint a picture of pacification was flawed. This is especially true in light of the rise in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be positive news if this was a drop, but I think we can’t just focus on the murder numbers and think: ‘Alright, excellent,’” stated Cecilia FarfĂĄn-MĂ©ndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico EvalĂșa, killings overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the same period last year. However, disappearances have gone up by 15% and in certain regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not valid for assessing the context of public insecurity,” argued Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico EvalĂșa. “First, we have law enforcement and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the desire to properly identify and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] 
 have the capability to mask violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that using monthly averages of everyday killings was similarly problematic because it may hide days when there were notably spiking numbers of killings.

“Employing the daily mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Progress

Where the government can cite the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were detained between October 2024 and this past November for serious crimes, per official data. Over 20,000 guns were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs seized.

“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of seizures, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However notwithstanding these measures, Mexico continues to be plagued by extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters demonstrated in the capital and throughout the nation to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.

“The government presents [data] in a way to build a story of security. Politically it’s very potent, socially it’s highly problematic,” the analyst concluded.
Matthew Thornton
Matthew Thornton

A passionate travel writer and photographer who has explored over 50 countries, sharing stories and tips to inspire wanderlust.